| | Sun, 04 Jan 2009 15:27:19 -0600 | | According 50-year old Prof. Panarin, a former KGB analyst, author and current dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Academy, there is a more than 50% chance that the US will disintegrate by July 2010. He says that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar and the U.S. will break into six pieces.
Dr. Panarin began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. In 1998 he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010 based on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts.
Panarin predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. Wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union, social unrest will lead to civil war and the US will split along ethnic lines.
According to Panarin the U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and he predicts China and Russia will usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator. He says that Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," but when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
Foreign powers will then move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
My Comments:
Absolute nonsense! What is the man smoking?
Yes, the US has experienced a recession or two, a housing bubble, a collapsing stock market (a few times), civil unrest and even a civil war...but we survived all of that before,..and we will again.
As a matter of fact as Thomas Jefferson (1743 - 1826) said: "The boisterous sea of liberty is never without a wave."
We as Americans have fought hard for freedom and equal rights. Remember the words of two other great presidents:
"Fourscore and seven years ago our Fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation conceived in liberty and dedication to the proposition that all men are created equal." Abraham Lincoln (1809 -1865)
"We and all who believe in freedom as deeply as we do. Would rather die on our feet than live on our knees." Franklin Roosevelt (1882-1945)
So whatever intel Panarin is using, he may have to adjust his predictions because we will prove him wrong. The US may have had a tough year or two, probably will even have one this year as we pick ourselves up from a depressed housing and stock market, but that we will...and we will do so as a free nation, a world power and one of the most prosperous nations in the world.
"We stand for freedom. That is our conviction for ourselves; that is our only commitment to others." John F. Kennedy (1917 - 1963).
God Bless America! Do I hear a thousand Rainers that agree!
Stefan Swanepoel
Author: Swanepoel TRENDS Report | |
| | Mon, 29 Dec 2008 13:34:41 -0600 | | In follow up to my post yesterday on the growth of Twitter I thought it would be interesting to share some Twitter terminology.
Similar to the Web, Blogging and Wiki, Twitter has also sparked a whole new legion of "new" words. Below a list of 70 interesting ones I have seen.
Twittonary of Twitter Terms
- Twadd - To add someone as a friend to Twitter.
- Twaggle - A gaggle of followers.
- Twaigslist - To sell something via Twitter.
- Twaiting - Twittering while waiting
- Twaffic - Twitter traffic.
- Twaunt - To taunt someone over Twitter.
- Twead - To read a Twitter.
- Twebay - To offer something for sale via Twitter.
- Tweekend - Spending your entire weekend on Twitter.
- Tweeple - Twitter people, Twitter members, Twitter users
- Tweepish - Feeling sheepish or regretful about something you tweeted.
- Tweeps - Twitterites that follow each other from one online network to another.
- Twease - A person who teases people over Twitter.
- Twends - Trends caused by Twitter and micro-blogging.
- Tweet-back - Bringing a previous tweet conversation back into the current conversation.
- Tweet-dropping - Eavesdropping on someone's else's Home Page in With Friends mode.
- Tweetaholism - The addiction to continued use of Twitter.
- Tweeter - A Twitter user.
- Tweeterboxes - Twitterers who tweet too much
- Tweetheart - That special someone who makes your heart skip a beat.
- Twitterholic - Someone who is addicted to Twitter.
- TweetIn - When a group of Twitterers agree to get together at a set time to Twitter.
- Tweeting - The act of posting to Twitter.
- Tweets - Posts on Twitter by Twitterers.
- Tweetsult - An insult via Twitter.
- TweetUp - When Twitterers meet in person in one's home nest.
- Twhepherd - The Twitter employee that finds and restores lost followers to your twaggle.
- Twexplanation - Sending a nebulousTweet and having to explain it while offline from Twitter.
- Twittercal mass - A community that has achieved a critical mass of Twitterers.
- Twibute -- To pay tribute on Twitter.
- Twis - To dis a fellow Twitterer.
- Twisticuffs - Fighting with a fellow Twitterer over twitter.
- Twitosphere - Community of Twitterers
- Twittastic - Something fantastic and wonderful.
- Twittcrastination - Twittering as a form of procrastination
- Twitterati - The glamorous A-List Twitterer's everyone wants to follow.
- Twitterer - A user of Twitter.
- Twittectomy - Unfollowing friends.
- Twittering - To send a Twitter message.
- Twitterish - Erractic behavior with short outbursts.
- Twired - Tired after excessive Twittering
- Twitterfly - Being a social butterfly on Twitter.
- Twitterject - Interject your tweet into an existing tweet stream of conversation.
- Twitterlooing - Twittering from a bathroom.
- Twitterloop - To be caught up with friend tweets and up on the conversation.
- Twittermaps - A mashup technology that lets Twitter users find each other using Google maps.
- Twitterpated - To be overwhelmed with Twitter messages.
- Twitterphoria - The elation you feel when the person you've added as a friend adds you back.
- Twitterrhea - The act of sending too many Twitter messages.
- Twitterrific - A really good Tweat
- Twittervision - locates the Twitterer on a map.
- Twittsomnia - Inability to sleep due to excessive Twittering.
- Twittertories - Clusters of Twittererers that follow and friend each other with little overlap with other clusters.
- Twittertude - Bad Twitter attitude.
- Twittfessional - A confession made on Twitter.
- Twitticisms - Witty Tweets.
- Twittilate - To arouse with Tweets.
- Twittish - Too skittish to Twitter.
- Twittsomnia - Twittering due to inability to sleep.
- Twittworking - Networking with Twitterites using Twitter.
- Twixt - Can't decide who to Tweet.
- Twhiner - A Twitterer who only ever posts whiney, negative Tweets.
- Twofor - Replying to two unrelated Tweets with a single Tweet.
- TwoingTwoing - To Twitter about wonderful things.
- Twlocked - To have Twitter (writers) block.
- Twoops - When you accidentally send a private SMS to Twitter
- Twoosh - A full 140 character Twitter.
- Twopsies - When you drop things because you are Twittering.
- Twurvey - A survey sent out over Twitter.
- Twype - To type a Twitter.
I am sure you have heard many other ones. Lets see how many we can find.
Please share ones you know and I will add them to above Twittonary.
Additions Since the Original Post:
Twitterlicious - Something delightful on Twitter (Added by Susie Blackmon-Valley)
Twemendous - Something fabulous that happened as a result of Twitter (Addd by Juliet Johnson)
Twit - Someone who doesn't follow Twitter Twettiquette (Added by Crystal Pina)
Twetiquette - The correct manner to use Twitter (Added by Crystal Pina)
Twitterbation - When you tweet yourself (Added by Juliet Johnson)
Mistweet - A tweet that one regrets later (Added by Rick)
Friendapalooza - A quick burst of friend-adding (Added by DJ of Real Estate Wiki)
Co-Twitterer - A partner that tweets on your Twitter account (Added by DJ of Real Estate Wiki)
Dweet - A Tweet sent while intoxicated (Added by DJ of Real Estate Wiki)
Neweeter - A new Tweeter (Added by DJ of Real Estate Wiki)
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| | Sun, 28 Dec 2008 15:48:59 -0600 | | During the holidays I received a few emails indicating surprise that I included micro blogging (Twitter) on my Top 10 Events impacting Real Estate in 2008 so I thought I would provide a little more information for those that are not that familiar with the concept of short text-based 140 character posts.
Twitter is again one of those social media phenomena's. Founded in 2006 Twitter moved into the mainstream in this year. According to HubSpot 1 million people joined Twitter since October, pushing the new 2008 Twitter users to 3.5 million and the grand total to 5 million Twitterers or Tweeple.
(PS: To the loyal MySpace and Facebook fans, yes, Facebook is still the largest socialmedia site and is about 30 times bigger with approx. 140 million users).
Twaffic (Twitter traffic) has risen sharply on Twitter this year. Already at an admirable 1 million unique users per month at the beginning of the year, traffic has risen to almost 4 million unique users per month, affirming Twitter as the #1 micro-blogging tool on the Internet.
Realtors are also in increasing numbers Tweeting (communicating) and Twittworking (networking on Twitter). Various real estate related applications are also starting to emerge.
I will be posting regular Twend Tweets (Real Estate Trend Updates) on Twitter so you are interested you can follow me @Swanepoel
Love to hear are you Rainers are finding Twitter for your real estate busienss?
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| | Wed, 17 Dec 2008 19:53:01 -0600 | | As part of the annual Swanepoel TRENDS Report that is published every year during the first week of February, the research team wraps their four month study of the real estate industry by announcing the top 10 Newsmakers, Events and Trendsetters for the year.
The second list to be released is the top 10 events that during 2008 had the largest impact and influence on the real estate brokerage industry. Events are defined as those occurrences that transpired during the previous calendar year (2008) that made headlines and captured the attention of the real estate industry. The selection of these events was based upon their potential future impact on the industry rather than only their 2008 impact.
The Top 10 Events impacting Real Estate for 2008 are:
1. The Bailout: September 17th
Most notably the one single event of the year was the announcement of the "Silver Bullet" designed to save the country from the subprime collapse itself and the failure/buyout of major Wall Street firms and national banks. Depending upon how effectively the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act's $700 billion is going to be allocated and managed it may prove to be the beginning of the turning point in the current economic recession.
2. The Presidential Election
In one of the most competitive, contentious, divisive and yet historic political campaigns the country responded with the largest voter turnout in history to elect an African American, Barak Obama as president. The "I have a dream" has taken a huge step toward fulfillment. However, the new administration will have little time to reflect on victory as it faces serious economic challenges and a trillion dollar plus debt that will take years to resolve.
3. In Memory Of: Countrywide, IndyMac, WAMU, Wachovia And Others
Barely one year ago in 2007 these companies were not only household names but were considered financial giants. In one short year they have become a factoid of history. Some filed for bankruptcy while others were acquired by the likes of Bank of America, the federal government, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo. 2008 reminded us that nothing lasts forever and everything is replaceable.
4. Facing Foreclosure Frenzy
As a direct fallout of the subprime collapse, the foreclosure rate in the U.S. hit staggering levels in 2008. At the opening of the third quarter foreclosures were up 25% over the previous October with a reported one in every 452 of the country's homes in foreclosure. RealtyTrac reported last October that there was a sharp decline in foreclosure filings but it still estimated that by the end of 2008 there would be more than one million REOs on the books.
5. Home Prices Spiral Downward
The recession devastated many real estate markets across the country with the worst-performing towns and cities in places like central California, Miami and Las Vegas posting declines of 40% in 2008. The stranglehold on financing continued to drive home prices in many other places back to 2000 - 2002 levels, with predictions of continued declines in 2009 as unemployment reaches record highs and the financial meltdown spills over to other industries.
6. NAR - DOJ Settlement
Finally the long and protracted 2½ year legal battle between NAR and the Department of Justice (DOJ) was put to rest as Judge Kennelly issued his final judgment in November. In the end, NAR's longstanding Internet Data Exchange (IDX) policy was validated as NAR was deemed to have not admitted any liability or wrongdoing and no payments were made in conjunction with the settlement. In addition, NAR has been cleared to reinstate an updated version of its Virtual Office Website (VOW) and the MLS has been preserved and strengthened in the process. Now it's back to business.
7. Brokers Go Bust
Changing names, merging, consolidating, filing bankruptcy and closing branches was on the order of the day throughout 2008 as literally thousands of real estate brokerages companies went out of business during 2008. This included many independents as well as franchises from just about every major brand including Century 21, EXIT and RE/MAX. Also filling for bankruptcy is national franchise Help-U-Sell and Web 2.0 newcomers such as Igglo. 2009 may see even more brokers closing up shop than 2008.
8. Keeping It Short
Founded in 2006, Twitter moved into the mainstream this year as the next evolution in the social networking and micro-blogging environment. By using short text-based posts (affectionately named "tweets"), staying in touch has been given a whole new meaning.
9. ActiveRain Explodes Past 100,000 Members
As we discussed in last year's report (Trend #1 - Two Worlds; One Industry) ActiveRain has moved to the head of the social networking line in the real estate industry. With as many as 35,000 users logged on at the same time, no one else has even come close to reaching that many Realtors® at one time. It goes without saying that ActiveRain has proven that social networking has made a home in real estate.
10. NAR Celebrates 100 Years
In May 1908, 120 men gathered in Chicago with the goal to "unite the real estate men of America." Today the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) is America's largest trade association representing more than 1.2 million members. For 100 years, NAR and its members have established homeownership as a cornerstone of the American Dream and advocated private property rights as one of the fundamental principles that unite us as Americans. 2008 marked NAR's centennial birthday.
How many of these events impacted you or were/are you aware of? | |
| | Tue, 09 Dec 2008 14:12:51 -0600 | | As part of the annual Swanepoel TRENDS Report that is published every year during the first week of February, the research team wraps their four month study of the real estate industry by announcing the top 10 Newsmakers, Events and Trendsetters for the year.
The first list to be released is the Newsmakers. Newsmakers are defined as those people that during the year made headlines as individuals, as a result of their actions and leadership of the companies or associations they are involved with in the real estate industry.
The Top 10 Newsmakers in Real Estate for 2008 are:
- William Foley ll
As the founder and CEO of Fidelity National Financial (FNF), the country’s 2nd largest title company (probably by now the largest), Bill has made many bold moves during 2008 including the acquisition of four more title brands: Land America, Commonwealth, Lawyers and United. The FNF stable already operates the Fidelity Title, Chicago Title, Ticor Title, Security Title and Alamo title brands. FNF has also successfully created Cyberhomes as one of the most significant consumer facing portals in real estate.
- Sheila Bair
She was appointed as Chairman to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to serve a five-year term until June 2011. Bair spearheaded the administrations efforts to resolve many of the problems caused by the housing market, spoke out for homeowners, pushed for mass loan modifications and pressed lenders to modify the terms of troubled loans to prevent foreclosure.
- Henry Paulsen & Ben Bernanke
As Secretary of Treasury and Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board these two men stepped into the leadership role of presiding over the government’s intervention into the nation’s financial crisis by creating the program that is the beginning of what will hopefully drive the U.S. economy through the recession. As 2008 was a political transition year their successors will continue the task and benefit from or be burdened with decisions already made.
- Gary Keller
As the driving force behind Keller Williams Realty and the author of five real estate books, Keller has been the visionary in growing KW into one of the largest and most recognizable real estate franchises in the country with over 75,000 associates and partners. Even during the last few tough years Keller Williams has bucked the trend and continued to grow. His new book “Shift” published in 2008 was also very timely.
- Laurie Janik
As General Counsel for the National Association of Realtors® Janik led the tireless battle against the Department of Justice resolving the litigation between them over the display of listings from the MLS on brokers' virtual office Web (VOW) sites, validating NAR's long-standing Internet data exchange (IDX) policy and strengthening the membership rules governing multiple listing services.
- Kenneth Lewis
As CEO of the Bank of America Lewis has built BofA into the number one bank in the U.S. as was highlighted in 2008 by the acquisitions of Merrill Lynch and Countrywide. Now the leader on almost every front in the financial world, Bank of America will be the single largest lender of mortgages and therefore a key contributor to the future growth of the housing market.
- Saul Klein
As president and co-founder of Internet Crusade Klein has been around a long time. However, his appointment as CEO of Point2 Technologies and the subsequent nationwide syndication of MLS information has launched him into the spotlight. Klein has also tirelessly promoted the e-Pro certification program and helped build the second largest real estate community – RealTown.
- Charles McMillan
The 2009 President of the National Association of REALTORS® is from Irving, Texas and is the Director of Realty Relations and Broker of Record for Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, Dallas-Fort Worth. McMillan is the first African American to serve as President in NAR’s 100 year history and is a strong proponent of “not standing still” but embracing change. Combined with the strong leadership from NAR CEO Dale Stinton, NAR could in 2009 lay the foundation for an exciting future.
- Pete Flint & Sami Inkinen
As founders of Trulia these two leaders, in spite of the current financial difficulties and the market downturn, continue to go against that flow and have raised funding in the amount of $33 million, which solidifies Trulia as a dotcom company that could survive the economic and/or Web 2.0 downturn to become one of the new paradigm companies to shape the future.
- David Michonski
As Chairman and CEO of Coldwell Banker Hunt Kennedy in Manhattan, Michonski has during the last year become a national name with his timely television interviews in which he represents and discusses the real estate industry especially in the troubled economic time in which the industry finds itself. He was also founding president for the Manhattan Association of Realtors and the Manhattan Multiple Listing Service.
For more information on the 2009 edition of the Swanepoel TRENDS Report visit www.retrends.com.
How many of the names do you recognize? Any others you would have considered as a possible Newsmaker for 2008?
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| | Thu, 04 Dec 2008 12:00:05 -0600 | | Evolution is all part of the process of re-engineering the real estate industry and the home buying process so every time I come across a new business model that is working I get excited. Some may say that this concept is not truly new, but with its format and European origin, it is definitely unique and very different.
Originally launched in 1977 as Engel & Cie., the company changed its name in 1987 to Engel & Völkers. It operated pretty much as a traditional real estate franchise until the mid 1990's when its owner and Managing Director, Christian Volkers, decided to completely change the direction of the company.
The concept was to create a Real Estate Shop Concept. Similar to most franchise businesses where the design, layout, system and brand of the franchise is more uniform. Volkers felt that if you wanted to maintain high quality then you need more consistency and there was no reason that real estate franchises should be any different than other service industry franchises.
The first Real Estate Shop in 1995 and the company never looked back. Now in over 25 countries with over 350 Real Estate Shops, Engel & Völkers has become one of the world's truly global real estate brokerage companies offering a much higher quality of service and consistency to their high-end clients for the brokerage of prestige residential property, commercial real estate and yachts.
I first wrote about the company in 2006 and mentioned them in the 2007 edition of the Swanepoel TRENDS Report. Since then they refined their shop model for the American market and have opened some 14 Engel & Völkers shops in New York, the Hamptons and Florida. And now Engel & Völkers has expanded to the single largest real estate market in the world - California - by opening their West Coast Head Office in Beverly Hills, Los Angeles.
Some initial responses might be that the shop concept won't work in the American real estate industry, but I think that the 350 shops in 25 countries, include the US disprove that. The shop concept is unquestionably not for everyone, but it is a progressive new concept for an industry that has long been looking for innovation.
I definitely think there is a place for this concept and it is going to be interesting to watch their growth in the US. What do you think? | |
| | Tue, 25 Nov 2008 13:15:42 -0600 | | Last weekend, real estate agents and brokers got introduced to yet another social and business network to participate in when online real estate news service, Broker Agent Professional, launched Broker Agent Social. Within the first 100 hours after launch they exploded to 2,000 members - adding a new member every few minutes.
Broker Agent Social enters an already crowded field dominated by ActiveRain of course as well as other large online communities such as RealTown, Zillow Community, Inman Community and RealSeekr.
It isn't that there's not room for one more as I actually suspect we will see another dozen or more develop over the next year as different online communities each strive to find their niche and target audience. According to Morgan Stanley, networking online has become the 2nd largest activity online after email.
Not all online communities are of course the same as My Space, Facebook, LinkedIn, Buzznet and Hi5 have already proven. In their case differentiation, at least in the beginning, may have started as a group of school friends, an international social network with a local flavor or an online community featuring a specific interest such as pop, punk or rock bands.
It will not be any different for real estate online communities. Each one is going to have to first its specific importance and usefulness to its members and secondly find a revenue model that they can sustain. Although initial indications were that marketers strongly supported online networks, most of the largest networks have yet to turn a profit and with a downturn in the economy advertising budgets are being reeled in.
That said I am still positive that online networks will play a significant role in shaping the future of the home buying transaction and I have dedicated a trend to them in my 2009 Swanepoel TRENDS Report that is due for release on 2/2/09.
Time will tell who will be able to build a loyal and meaningful following that will cherish their online relationship enough to stay active members. Having a lot of members is important but it is the focus and specialization that instills the desire to for members to return on a frequent basis and it is quality of the content that encourages participation and loyalty - both key factors in long term survival.
So, in your opinion, which are the three best online communities in real estate? Now be objective... | |
| | Sat, 22 Nov 2008 10:35:09 -0600 | | On November 7th, while I was at the NAR convention in Orlando, Fidelity surprised us all by announcing that it would be acquiring LandAmerica in an all stock deal valued at $128 million. This merger would have great the largest title insurance group with about a 45% market share. In terms of the agreement Fidelity had time till today, November 21st to back out of the deal based on their due diligence. Well, last night, Friday at 8:00PM Eastern time they did exactly that.
The deals off! | |
| | Wed, 12 Nov 2008 22:22:02 -0600 | | Real estate professionals need to think differently about the future. They need to do more and they need to move faster.
It has now been more than 10 years since my first book on trends, Real Estate confronts Reality, and many of the changes that we have been writing and speaking about are now coming to fruition. Things are definitely changing, and on a large scale. Within the next five years the real estate brokerage industry will significantly have changed and brokers and agents that don't adapt now will not enjoy the benefits of the next economic upswing.
Many of the leading companies of the next few decades are already starting to emerge and the time to stake your claim is now. How do you do that? The answer, of course, is not a simple one, but one that I will nevertheless endeavor over the course of the next few months to shed some light on.
Let's start our journey by identifying five factors that will characterize the future:
1. Change
Change is real. It is neither bad nor necessarily good. However it is constant and ever present. It is the very essence of life. So change in our industry is not something new, nor should it be deemed unexpected. It will however alter they way you do business. The more change we experience in a condensed time frame, the larger the transformation will be.
2. Complexity
Most adjustments in life are usually hard and therefore we by nature resist them. We have to deal with many changes occurring at the same time that are integrated with activities, products and processes we do not always understand - all of which create a myriad of complexities. And as the future is uncertain and ever changing these complexities just cloud the issue, often hiding very change needed.
3. Confusion
And so the change together with the complexity creates confusion for us. We become bewildered by the new and often fixated with the idea that we cannot do something. This uncertainty is unfounded and must be overcome. As certain as there are new things you do not know, so also is the fact that you can master any new product, service or skill and that the path going forward can be revealed.
4. Choice
Remember that every scenario provides options and alternatives. Failure is more often than not self imposed barriers. Each problem, obstacle and impediment has more than one solution and you have the capability of discovering it. It just requires commitment, focus, time and execution.
5. Courage
Do not resist change. Embrace it. Make it work for you. Find the thread from the past that you can carry into the future - build on your existing knowledge by adding new knowledge, grow your skill set by expanding your horizons and remain competitive by embracing innovation. Rather than resisting or fearing the change help shape the future of the industry.
Every year the Swanepoel TRENDS Report identifies, analyzes and then details out the most important and imminent changes that are expected to impact the real estate industry over the coming 12 - 18 months. The 2009 edition is currently in the final 60 days of research and writing.
If you have information that you would like to share with me feel free to email me and my research team at 2009@REtrends.com before Monday, November 17th. | |
| | Mon, 03 Nov 2008 19:30:04 -0600 | | Change seems to be the buzz word this year, with Barack Obama touting "Change We Need," John McCain promoting "Real Change" and even Hillary Clinton saying "Change you can count on."
Every year the Swanepoel TRENDS Report identifies, analyzes and then details out the imminent changes that are expected to impact the real estate industry over the coming 12 - 18 months. The 2009 Report is currently in the final 60 days of research and writing and obviously with all the recent financial disasters, the energy crisis, the housing collapse and foreclosure catastrophe this has made 2008 the worst year in real estate and financial history.
So with 500 million cars clogging our roads, 7 billion tons of carbon dioxide produced per year and a government financial bail out package of $700 billion we have been bombarded with huge numbers. What do they mean and how big is 700,000,000,000 - really. Well, 700 billion M&M's would be enough to give every American 10 one-pound bags - or alternatively $700 billion could buy every person on the earth 87 McDonalds combo meals.
So what does it all mean to the real estate industry? That remains the $64,000 question and this is where the annual Swanepoel TRENDS report tries to provide insights, information and interpretation. And although 2008 has had more than its fair share of adversity, misfortune always provides a new opportunity if one knows where to look. Knowledge of course provides that foresight.
Already thousands of hours of researching has been invested in drafting the 2009 Swanepoel TRENDS Report by not only the regular team of analysts but over 50 regular industry leaders and contributors.
While we believe that the Swanepoel TRENDS Report is the most thorough and complete report of its kind it is impossible for us to cover the industry from top to bottom and, as we have done in past years, we would like to invite your input before we finalize the report for 2009.
During the month of November the Team at RealSure is opening the doors and inviting anyone involved the residential real estate brokerage industry to write to us and tell us if they feel they know of or are involved with any new, innovative product or service or a company that has set a course that is changing or could potentially change the industry.
If you believe that you have information that will help us provide a more accurate assessment of the industry and the trends and strategies shaping our future please email us. However, we cannot promise that everything we receive will make it into the 2009 Swanepoel TRENDS Report. We can however promise that no piece of information will go unread.
This year's special email address is 2009@REtrends.com and it will be open to receive input until Monday, November 17th. You may also send any personal quotes on the industry or the Trends Report should you wish to be cited. We do however ask that you do not send confidential information or product promotional material.
For more information on the 2009 Report visit www.REtrends.com | |
| | Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:36:16 -0500 | | Despite congressional passage of the historic $700 billion bailout legislation, which was signed by President Bush on Saturday, Oct. 4, the Dow Jones Index tumbled 22% last week; the worst week in its 118 year history.
Some calculations indicate that since the beginning of the year U.S. corporations have declined about $8 trillion in value ($20 trillion to $12 trillion) and we have seen giants stumble and fade like Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Indy Mac Bank, Lehman Brothers, AIG Insurance and Wachovia.
The current headlines read: Credit Crisis, Financial Meltdown and Stock Market crash.
It all reminds us so much of the year 1906; 102 years ago.
The city San Francisco had just been savaged by a major earthquake measuring 7.8. Over 30 fires caused by ruptured gas mains destroyed approximately 25,000 buildings in 490 city blocks causing a firestorm that lasted for four days and nights.
The event became the greatest loss of life from a natural disaster in California's history.
In the wake of this calamity one man took a stand and on behalf of his bank to help rescue the situation. He was Amadeo Giannini, the founder and President of Bank of Italy. Following the earthquake he sent out a telegram to his clients stating:
"Building Destroyed - Vaults Intact - Credit Unaffected."
The following day he opened for business and despite circumstances loaned money to as many people as he could to facilitate rebuilding the city, the businesses and thousands of people's lives.
He continued to create the first state-wide branch banking system and in 1920 renamed his bank, Bank of America. By 2008 Bank of America had become one of the Top 10 banks on the world, and according to assets the largest in the U.S.
What an inspirational story of success and the difference one person can make.
Who do you think, person or company, will be the success story of the current crisis? | |
| | Tue, 30 Sep 2008 13:59:20 -0500 | | GMAC Financial Services has sold GMAC Real Estate to Brookfield Asset Management, Inc., the owners of Royal LePage, the largest Canadian residential real estate brokerage company. The transaction is expected to close before year end. The transaction includes all three of GMAC's home services divisions including: GMAC Global Relocation Services, GMAC Real Estate and GMAC Home Services Mortgage. | |
| | Mon, 29 Sep 2008 06:25:43 -0500 | | With 3,460 respondents casting 6,099 votes, Rainers and the real estate professional community has decided who the Top 25 Most Influential Women are. And what an incredible list of powerful women this list represents.
Nine months ago when the 2008 edition of the Swanepoel TRENDS Report was published, the demographics that included women, youth and minorities were identified as key drivers in the future of the residential real estate brokerage industry. In the Trend titled "Shattered Glass" it was detailed how many women had reached leadership positions at national levels.
This trend lit the match to initiate a nationwide flame in search of the Top 100 Most Influential Women in leadership roles in the Real Estate Industry. Though the survey was not billed as warranting scientific rigidity, the tremendous response rate and distribution of over 6,000 votes speaks to a strength in collective wisdom about the relative placement of the most influential women in the Top 100 list. Hence the results are being presented in alphabetical order within three group rankings. The Top 25, Top 50 and the Top 100.
THE RESULTS
Top 25
The top 25 Most Influential Women include a power list of Who's Who in real estate such as former National Association of REALTORS® Presidents, Dorcas Helfant-Browning (1992) and Sharon Millett (1999); co-founders of large real estate franchises and companies such as Gail Liniger (of REMAX International), Ebby Halliday (of Ebby Halliday Realtors) and Barbara Corcoran (of Corcoran in NY). Also featuring prominently are current presidents and senior executives of large real estate firms such as Helen Hanna Casey (of Howard Hanna Real Estate), Michael Saunders (of Michael Saunders Real Estate) and Virginia Cook (of Virginia Cook Realtors).
The top 25 list, however, also comprises a variety of interesting female leaders that deal with all different walks of the industry such as Avis Wukasch (Board member of the Texas Real Estate Commission), Susie Hale (Frogpond Publishing) and Leslie Appelton-Young (chief economist of the California Association of Realtors). For a photo and full details of all of the Top 25 Most Influential Women click on each person's name in the list.
Here are the Top 25 in alphabetical order (names hyperlink to bios and photos):
Ann Defries
Avis Wukasch
Barbara Corcoran
Blanche Evans
Bonnie Mays
Danielle Kennedy
Dorcas Helfant-Browning
Ebby Halliday
Gail Liniger
Helen Hanna-Casey
Joeann Fossland
Judy Ladeur
Kelli Todd
Laurie Janick
Leslie Appleton-Young
Margaret Kelly
Mary Frances Burleson
Mary Tennant
Michael Saunders
Mo Anderson
Niki Rapattoni
Rita Santamaria
Sharon Millett
Susie Hale
Virginia Cook
Top 50
The next group of 25 women rounding out the top 50 includes numerous household names in the industry featuring esteemed authors such as Carla Cross and Bernice Ross and well known speakers and trainers such as Laurie Moore-Moore, Barb Schwartz and Dianna Kokoszka. The list is also adorned with numerous presidents of large real estate companies including Kaira Sturivant Rouda (Real Living), Sherry Chris (Better Homes & Gardens) and Dottie Herman (Prudential Douglas Elliman), Former NAR past presidents Cathy Whatley (2003) and Pat Vredevoogd Combs (2007), as well as incoming president for 2010, Vicki Cox also made the top 50 list.
Here are the Top 50 in alphabetical order (names hyperlink to bios and photos):
Adorna Carroll
Amy Chorew
Andy Capelluto
Ann Bailey
Anne Randolph
Barb Schwarz
Bernice Ross
Carla Cross
Cathy Whatley
Darity Wesley
Dianna Kokoszka
Dottie Herman
Frances Flynn Thorsen
Kaira Sturdivant Rouda
Kim Ades
Laurie Moore-Moore
Lenn Harley
Marilyn Wilson
Pam O'Connor
Pat Vredevoogd Combs
Patti Kouri
Shari Chase
Sherry Chris
Terry Murphy
Vicki Cox
Top 100
Rounding out the Top 100 Most Influential Women in Real Estate Leadership (in alphabetical order by first name) are:
Betty Graham, Beverly Faull, Bonnie Erikson, Brenda Casserly, Brenda Shipplett, Carmen Multhauf, Carol Clarke, Claudia Wicks, Darlene Lyons, Debbie Campagnola, Debra Ashwer, Donna Lee Laue, Edith Lank, Frances Martinez Myers, Ilyce Glink, Janet Branton, Jennifer Cummings, Joyce Bea Sterling, Joyce Paron, Judy Moses, Judy Stark, Karel Murray, Kimberly Gorsuch-Bradbury, Laurie Keenan, Lee Pappa, Lois Weis, Lorna Borenstein, Margaret Dixon, Maria Patterson, Mary Doyle Kimball, Mary Umberger, Maureen Mccabe, Nina Cottrell, Pamela Alexander, Pamela Geurds Kabati, Pamela Leibman, Pat Jensen, Patricia Choi, Robin Mueck, Ruth Ann Pepple, Sarah Shoemaker, Sharon Simms, Shelia Bair, Stacey Moncrieff, Sue Doerfler, Susan Johnson, Sylvia Shelnutt, Tami Bonnell and Tara-Nicholle Nelson. Bios of many of the finalists are listed at www.realestatewiki.com
Incredibly impressive list of great women.
Congratulations to everyone!!
Who are you most excited to see make it to the Top 25?
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| | Fri, 26 Sep 2008 14:22:41 -0500 | | So said John McCain during his acceptance speech and the RNC convention.
And I think he's right!
He was, of course, talking about our youth - I am, of course, thinking about my friends the real estate professionals.
Let's start with our kids. Survey after survey states that the US is falling behind when it comes to international education rankings. It would seem that many countries like Japan, Korea, Finland, New Zealand and even the United Kingdom have developed more effective education systems in recent years.
Generally speaking US reading results are lower than 30 years ago, and in a 2006 reading survey spanning 40 countries our 4th graders came 14th. SAT scores are basically unchanged in the last 3 decades. Even in science in which the USA features the best we are behind countries such as Finland, Hong Kong, Australia and, Germany. Even our neighbors to the north, Canada are above us.
So John McCain or Barack Obama, you have an important and huge responsibility on your shoulders for the decade ahead.
Meanwhile, back on the real estate ranch we are also sadly lacking. Compared to many other "jobs" or "professions" we are in most cases way behind. In a few states you can get your real estate license for as little as 40 hours.
40 hours??
That's about 5% the time we take every year just to research and write Swanepoel Trends Report. So what's in the Real Estate Licensing Exam? 100 multiple choice questions, some basic comprehension of real estate terms and a few simple math calculations.
Not good enough!! Do we always have to give everyone an incentive to do the right thing?
If we want smarter and brighter kids that have a better future, then education is the key.
If we want more professional real estate agents that have a successful career, then education is key.
So what should we do in the Real Estate industry to take a quantum leap forward? | |
| | Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:48:41 -0500 | | A week ago we started discussing the impact of women in leadership roles in real estate and now a week later we have an incredible list of 100 nominations of women that have and are making the mark on our industry. Congratulations to all nominees!
All Rainers are hereby invited to help us select the Top 20 Most Influential Women in Real Estate by casting their ballot.
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VOTING IS NOW OFFICIALLY CLOSED. RESULTS WILL BE POSTED ON MONDAY SEP 29th. | |
| | Tue, 16 Sep 2008 10:25:15 -0500 | | Social networking is a concept that's been around since J.A. Barnes first coined the term in a sociology report back in 1954. It moved onto the Web in 1995 with the launch of ClassMates, SixDegrees, Epinions and Friendster. Then of course came MySpace and Facebook and the world would never be the same again.
It's clear that marketers are embracing social networking as reflected in the projections for advertising on these sites. According to the advertising and marketing research firm eMarketer, ad spending on U.S. social networking sites in 2007 was projected to reach $865 million. This is up from $350 million in 2006 with expectations that it will increase to $2.15 billion in 2010.
As every major consumer advertiser realizes that if you can engage effectively with these newly networked masses they become agents of your brand. Just look at how fans dress in "branded" clothing at sporting events - now multiply that by millions of social networkers and you begin to get a picture of the potential.
Another research firm, Compete.com, calculates that in 2007 Americans spent about 12% of all their Internet time on social networks. The Center for Medial Research reports that the average American spends 105 minutes of spare time online every day. That represents almost 30 minutes per day in a social network; 15 hours per month or 4½ weeks per year. Not to belabor the point but if you add in the average time Americans waste at work (2 hours/day), of which over 44% is spent on the Internet, the number of hours expended on social networking becomes huge.
As people make social networking sites a bigger part of their lives online, communities are also shaping the real estate business and the home buying process. The 2008 Swanepoel TRENDS Report (www.ReTrends.com) ranks social networks as the #1 trend for 2008.
And who is leading the charge?
It would seem that ActiveRain has become the LinkedIn and Facebook of Real Estate. What do you think? | |
| | Mon, 15 Sep 2008 17:36:28 -0500 | | In the original post we started our search for women who have reached the top of the real estate leadership pyramid or who are in other ways proving themselves to be great leaders and spokespersons for our industry.
The response has been incredible. What an impressive list!!! Here are the 75 candidates we have so far:
| Adorna Caroll - Owner Realty3 Caroll Agostini |
| Ann Bailey - CEO, Pranix |
| Ann DeFreis - President, Women's Council of Realtors |
| Anne Randolph - Publisher, LORE magazine |
| Avis Wukasch - Board member Texas RE Commission |
| Barb Schwartz - President, Int. Assn. of Home Staging Professionals |
| Bernice Ross - CEO, RealEstateCoach.com |
| Betty Graham - Regional President Coldwell Banker Southern California |
| Beverly Faull - General Manager, Fidelity National Real Estate Solutions |
| Blanche Evans - Editor, Realty Times |
| Brenda Casserly - President, ERA Real Estate |
| Brenda Shipplett - COO, Long & Foster Companies |
| Carla Cross - Author and Coach |
| Carmen Multhauf - Author and Educator |
| Carol Clarke - Past President, Virginia Association of Realtors |
| Cathy Whatley - President 2003, NAR |
| Danielle Kennedy - Bestselling Author, Speaker and Coach |
| Darlene Lyons - President of Broker Agent Speakers Bureau |
| Debbie Campagnola - CEO, ARELLO |
| Dorcas Helfant-Browning - President 1992, NAR |
| Dottie Herman - CEO, Prudential Douglas Elliman |
| Ebby Halliday - Founder and Chairman of the Board, Ebby Halliday Realtors |
| Frances Flynn Thorsen - CEO, Socialebb Strategies and Solutions |
| Frances Martinez Myers - Former Chairman, Nat. Assn. of Hispanic RE Prof. |
| Gail Liniger - Vice Chairman, REMAX International |
| Helen Hanna Casey - President, Howard Hanna Real Estate |
| Ilyce Glink - Bestselling real estate author |
| Janet Branton - Senior Vice President, NAR |
| Jennifer Cummings - Author and Speaker |
| Joeann Fossland - President, Advantage Solutions Group |
| Joyce Bea Sterling - Author and Educator |
| Joyce Paron - President, EXIT Canada |
| Kaira Rouda - COO, Real Living |
| Kelli Todd - CEO of RE/MAX Marquee Partners |
| Kim Ades, President, Opening Doors |
| Kimberly Gorsuch-Bradbury - SVP RealEstate.com |
| Laurie Janick - NAR, General Counsel |
| Laurie Keenan - President, Prudential Real Estate Affiliates |
| Laurie Moore-Moore - President, Inst. of Luxury Homes Marketing |
| Lenn Harley - ActiveRain Overall Top 10 blogger |
| Leslie Appleton Young - California Assn Chief Economist |
| Lorna Borenstein - President, Move, Inc. |
| Margaret Dixon - CEO, Prudential Arizona Properties |
| Margaret Kelly - COO, REMAX International |
| Marilyn Wilson - Partner, WAV Group |
| Mary Doyle Kimball - Excecutive Director, Nat. Assn. of Real Estate Editors |
| Mary Tennant - COO, Keller Williams International. |
| Maureen McCabe - ActiveRain Overall Top 10 blogger |
| Michael Saunders - CEO, Michael Saunders Real Estate |
| Mo Anderson - President, Keller Williams Real Estate |
| Niki Rapattoni - Co-Founder Rapattoni MLS |
| Nina Cottrel - CEO, CRS |
| Pam O'Connor - CEO, Leading Real Estate Companies of the World |
| Pamela Alexander - CEO, REMAX Europe and REMAX Quebec-Atlantic Canada |
| Pamela Geurds Kabati - Editorial Director, Realtor Magazine and VP of NAR |
| Pamela Leibman - CEO, The Corcoran Group |
| Pat Jensen - President,Virginia Association of Realtors |
| Pat Vredevoogd Combs - President 2007, NAR |
| Patricia Choi - President of Choi Realty |
| Rita Santamaria - Author and Educator |
| Ruth Ann Pepple - Pres. Network Solutions, Leading Real Estate Companies |
| Sarah Shoemaker - COO, Real Living |
| Shari Chase - President, Chase International |
| Sharon Millett - President 1999, NAR |
| Sharon Simms - ActiveRain Overall Top 10 blogger |
| Shelia Bair - Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. |
| Sherry Chris - CEO, Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate |
| Stacey Moncrieff - Editor and Managing Director, Realtor Magazine |
| Susan Johnson - President, Real Estate Settlement Providers Council |
| Susie Hale - President, Frogpond |
| Sylvia Shelnutt - President, Real Estate Educators Association |
| Tami Bonnell - President, EXIT USA |
| Tara-Nicholle Nelson - Founder and Chief Visionary of REThinkRealEstate.com |
| Vicki Cox - Incoming President 2010, NAR |
| Virginia Cook - CEO Virginia Cook Realtors and former Pres. TAR and HAR |
(PS: It has been very difficult to review and decide whether to include or exclude any particular nomination, so please forgive me if you feel differently. As a rule I have not included successful sales agents based on their production but only added those agents where they have shown leadership or influence on a national basis.)
25 more great women to! Let's do it!
VIEW NEW POST FOR VOTE.
VOTING CLOSES FRIDAY SEP 26.
RESULTS ANNOUNCEC MONDAY SEP 29. | |
| | Mon, 15 Sep 2008 12:05:40 -0500 | | The worst 7 days in financial market history ever! Prepare yourself for a delayed real estate recovery.
What a week and weekend this has been - the Government, State Rescue Operations and large corporations were all very busy. Millions of people were and remain at risk on many different levels - millions were affected by hurricane Ike, millions remain on the doorstep of foreclosure and millions will be affected by the closing and restructuring of various Fortune 500 companies.
Worst Housing Slump in History
Treasury had to step in to save Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from almost certain disaster. Collectively these two giant hold about 50% of the countries mortgages. Their initial $200 billion dollar bailout symbolizes the largest bailout by the U.S. government ever. Ever!
Worst Financial Collapse in History
On top of that the Government had to provide $29 billion in loans for the shotgun marriage between Bear Sterns and JP Morgan Chase and the $9 billion for failed IndyMac Bank.
And another rescue this weekend was the acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co for $50 billion by Bank of America. Meanwhile the chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of 158 year-old Lehman Brothers - estimated at $639 billion will be the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history ever. Ever!
Worst Texas Natural Disaster in History
Hurricane Ike hit Galveston Bay, the heart of America's oil production over the weekend and causing untold flooding and damage. Early calculations are already estimating the damage to be in the ball park of $100 billion making this one of the largest natural disasters in the US. The cost of Katrina was estimated to range between $250-300 billion.
This is on top of the estimated cost of hurricane Rita of $4 billion and hurricane Ivan at $2.6 billion. Despite short term drop in oil prices, Ike's impact will most likely be felt across the country as gas prices are expected to rise to $4 a gallon again in the wake of closed refineries.
Question for Rainers: When do you think the real estate market will recover in your neck of the woods? | |
| | Sun, 14 Sep 2008 16:22:00 -0500 | | Women have not only reached the top of the real estate leadership pyramid, they are proving themselves to be great leaders. Bold words, coming for a man, but my research shows that in the last couple of years women have moved into the #1 or #2 positions at many of the country's largest real estate companies.
When compared to many other professions and industries, real estate has long been one where women can more easily achieve success and equality with men. The National Association of Realtors profile even put the number of all sales agents at 65% female. But that's not what I am referring to - I mean management, and not even at middle management levels but executive levels.
For example here are some of the women in executive positions in today's real estate brokerage industry:
• Mo Anderson - President, Keller Williams Real Estate
• Shelia Bair - Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
• Tami Bonnell - President EXIT USA
• Lorna Borenstein - President, Move, Inc.
• Debbie Campagnola - CEO, ARELLO
• Brenda Casserly - President, ERA Real Estate
• Shari Chase - President , Chase International
• Sherry Chris - CEO, Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate
• Beverly Faull - General Manager, Fidelity National Real Estate Solutions
• Helen Hanna Casey - President, Howard Hanna Real Estate
• Dottie Herman - CEO, Prudential Douglas Elliman
• Laurie Janick - General Counsel, NAR
• Susan Johnson - President , Real Estate Settlement Providers Council
• Laurie Keenan - President, Prudential Real Estate Affiliates
• Margaret Kelly - COO, REMAX International
• Pamela Leibman - CEO, The Corcoran Group
• Gail Liniger - Vice Chairman, REMAX International
• Pam O'Connor - CEO, Leading Real Estate Companies of the World
• Joyce Paron - President, EXIT Canada
• Kaira Rouda - COO, Real Living
• Brenda Shipplett - COO, Long & Foster Companies
• Sarah Shoemaker - COO, Real Living
• Pat Vredevoogd Combs -NAR President 2007
Can you name others?
This eye-opening discussion is but the first part of Trend #10 in my 2008 Swanepoel Trends Report (http://www.ReTrends.com). Rounding out Trend #10, "Shattered Glass" as the trend is listed in the Report, is an evaluation of the important impact of the Youth and Minorities in real estate. I will discuss those two groups in another blog, on another day.
For now, it's the women. Let's see if we can create a list of the Top 100 Women in Real Estate right here on ActiveRain.
PS: If you were wondering who the pretty woman is in the blog, well I have to confess, it's my wife, Era Swanepoel.
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| | Sun, 14 Sep 2008 15:00:48 -0500 | | Influential Women in Real Estate Leadership and Business. That's what it's all about. Who are they? What do they do? What makes them tick?
Help us as we continue our search for the Top 100 most influential women in real estate business today.
Our list has reached halfway mark after only 2 days. See the list here
We need your help... | |
| | Sun, 14 Sep 2008 13:45:26 -0500 | | 1. I thought I saw an eye doctor on an Alaskan island, but it turned out to be an optical Aleutian.
2. A rubber band pistol was confiscated from algebra class because it was a weapon of math disruption.
3. A small boy swallowed some coins and was taken to a hospital. When his grandmother telephoned to ask how he was, a nurse said, 'No change yet.'
4. A dog gave birth to puppies near the road |
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